Pharma’s 2030 outlook: manufacturing, access and supply chain resilience

Patients could be among the biggest beneficiaries of changes in the pharmaceutical industry by 2030, but realising this potential will depend on more than developing innovative medicines.

These questions were explored during the panel discussion ‘The New Pharmaceutical World Order: Winners and Losers by 2030’ at CPHI Milan 2026. 

Panellists discussed how advances in drug development and preventative healthcare could benefit patients, alongside the role of manufacturing innovation in shaping the industry’s future. They also examined the economic and policy challenges facing the industry, from ensuring reliable medicines supply to maintaining Europe’s competitiveness and improving patient access.

Improving access to innovative medicines

The development of targeted therapies and biologics is expanding treatment options for patients, but ensuring these medicines are affordable and accessible remains a challenge.

GLP-1 medicines were highlighted as one example of this shift, with their potential extending beyond obesity and diabetes treatment. Future applications could include preventative use in higher-risk populations and other disease areas, although questions around affordability and access remain.

As medicines lose patent protection, biosimilars could also play an important role in widening access to biologic therapies. However, speakers raised concerns about whether sufficient development is taking place to ensure that lower-cost alternatives are ready to reach patients as patents expire.

Building a more resilient medicines supply chain

Alongside innovation, speakers highlighted the importance of ensuring that medicines can reliably reach patients. Increasing manufacturing efficiency could help reduce costs and improve access, particularly across the generics market, but the pursuit of lower prices has also created challenges for supply chain resilience.

Over the past decade, efficiency gains have helped make generic medicines more affordable. However, when prices fall to levels at which production is no longer commercially viable, manufacturers may withdraw from the market, increasing the risk of shortages.

Shorter purchasing contracts can exacerbate this problem by making it harder for manufacturers to plan production and invest for the long term. Greater alignment between buyers and manufacturers will therefore be needed to ensure that medicines remain commercially viable to produce.

Alongside addressing the commercial pressures that can lead to shortages, governments are looking to strengthen domestic manufacturing capabilities to reduce vulnerability to supply disruptions. However, complete independence from international suppliers is unlikely to be realistic.

Can Europe remain competitive?

The discussion also considered how Europe could maintain its position in the global pharmaceutical industry as manufacturing and investment priorities change.

Europe could remain competitive by adopting technologies that improve productivity, including automation and continuous manufacturing.”

Despite higher labour costs than some competing regions, Europe could remain competitive by adopting technologies that improve productivity, including automation and continuous manufacturing. These approaches could help offset operating costs while supporting more efficient production.

Funding decisions will also influence Europe’s ability to support innovation while improving access to medicines. With a substantial number of medicines expected to lose patent protection by 2032, Europe will need to consider how existing funding can be used more effectively to support biosimilar development and market entry. Ensuring that alternatives can reach patients quickly could strengthen market competition and help improve affordability.

Technology could reshape pharmaceutical manufacturing

The ability to adopt new technologies could be another factor distinguishing the industry’s winners and losers by 2030.

Artificial intelligence (AI), digital twins and in silico modelling could help pharmaceutical companies improve development processes and bring products to market more quickly. Smaller, agile companies may be particularly well positioned to adopt these approaches, developing new products and processes that can subsequently be transferred into manufacturing.

However, the use of AI in pharmaceutical development and manufacturing must be balanced with appropriate human oversight, particularly where decisions could affect patient safety. Capturing the benefits of these technologies will require suitable regulatory and quality frameworks.

Continued investment in standards for advanced technologies will therefore be important as the industry evolves.”

Trusted standards will also be important in enabling innovation. By giving regulators greater confidence in new technologies and manufacturing approaches, standards can support more consistent decision-making and help innovative processes move towards wider adoption. Continued investment in standards for advanced technologies will therefore be important as the industry evolves.

Prevention and self-care beyond medicines

The changing pharmaceutical landscape could also bring greater overlap between medicines, prevention and consumer healthcare.

Pharmacies, for example, could play a greater role in preventative health checks and early intervention, making better use of existing healthcare infrastructure and giving patients more opportunities to manage their health proactively.

Gut health was also highlighted as an area likely to attract increasing attention, with nutraceuticals and other consumer products already playing a role in this market. Growing interest in gut health in the US, including through functional foods such as yoghurts, illustrates how healthcare-related products are increasingly being marketed directly to consumers.

This trend could expand opportunities for preventative health approaches, although it also raises questions about how consumers will access reliable information and how these products will fit into wider healthcare strategies.

Ultimately, the pharmaceutical winners of 2030 may not simply be the companies developing the most innovative medicines. They will also need to ensure that products can be manufactured efficiently, supplied reliably and made accessible to the patients who need them.

Achieving this will require closer alignment between innovation, manufacturing, pricing and healthcare policy, with patient access remaining central to the industry’s future direction.