Next drug patent cliff to challenge Big Pharma strategy

Multiple blockbuster drugs set to lose exclusivity, producing one of the pharmaceutical industry’s most financially significant patent cliffs in over a decade, according to GlobalData.

Oncology is one of the key therapy areas set to be affected by pricing pressures as drug patents expire.

Pharma companies will need to “rethink revenue strategies, pipeline investments, and lifecycle management to safeguard long-term growth”, as a greater number of biosimilars and generic medicines gain market entry, according to a recent report by the data and analytics company.

As such, the US market is expected to lose over $230 billion over the next five years. Only a few big pharma companies are positioned to grow revenue sustainably through 2030, stated GlobalData.

Which blockbuster drugs could be impacted in the next pharmaceutical patent cliff?

Major drugs including Merck’s Keytruda and Johnson & Johnson’s Darzalex/Faspro will lose US exclusivity by 2029. While these medicines are expected to remain in the top 10 selling drugs by the end of the decade, their revenue is expected to decline, GlobalData added.

However, Bristol Myers Squibb is one of the companies forecast to be impacted the most by the upcoming patent cliff, with its blockbuster drugs Eliquis and Opdivo losing exclusivity.

“More than half of the top 15 pharma companies are expected to face challenges in managing the impact of the upcoming patent cliff. However, some companies have pipeline drugs forecast to offset part of these losses,” explained George El-Helou, Strategic Intelligence Analyst at GlobalData.

“To effectively navigate a patent cliff, companies must deploy a range of strategies to offset losses and strengthen their long-term position. These may include acquiring early-stage biotechs developing promising therapies and increasing investment in R&D, targeting diseases with high unmet needs. Additionally, life cycle management and patent thickets can be effective tools to extend market exclusivity and defend against generic competition,” El-Helou added.

Yet, impact of the pharmaceutical patent cliff on provides a “significant opportunity” for pharma companies, according to Hannah Hans, Head of Pharma Strategic Intelligence at GlobalData. This includes biotechs partnering with pharma “on next generation therapies, novel delivery platforms and differentiated formulations”.